O que ficou do 8N

Folha

E o 8N, data do protesto tão alardeado pela oposição ao governo Cristina Kirchner, já é passado. O balanço final dos organizadores foi de que a manifestação teve êxito: presença avassaladora de anti-kirchneristas, nada de violência, nem verbal, nem física, e bandeiras que de tão amplas, cobriam todas as áreas e imperfeições do governo.

Porém, o que ficará do protesto e qual a possibilidade de influir nos próximos atos do governo? A resposta certamente virá nos próximos meses, porém, podem-se fazer algumas especulações. Seguem algumas reflexões.

1. O governo não ouviu nada.

Em suas declarações no dia da marcha (“não vamos relaxar”) e no dia seguinte (“o que aconteceu de importante no mundo ontem foi o congresso do partido comunista chinês”), Cristina Kirchner deixou claro que as reclamações por mais transparência, mais respeito às instituições democráticas e de julgamento para os casos de corrupção de que são acusados funcionários de seu governo não terão nenhum efeito prático. Cristina não dá sinais de que iniciará reformas políticas, de gestão, tampouco de que quer esclarecer acusações contra seus aliados.

Crédito: Sylvia Colombo

2. A re-reeleição não passará.

O governo quer, e está tratando de colocar o tema na agenda da mídia e do Congresso a todo custo, apesar de não ter feito, ainda, nenhum movimento oficial.

A demonstração de repúdio à ideia, porém, que ficou muito clara na noite do panelaço, é suficiente para dar aos congressistas a medida do quão indesejados seriam a reforma da Constituição e um novo termo para Cristina. Nos dias anteriores à marcha, deputados e senadores se comprometeram, por meio de documentos abaixo-assinados, a dizer “não” à proposta.

Além disso, a insatisfação crescente da população deve fazer com que o governo perca a maioria que tem hoje no Congresso nas próximas eleições legislativas, em 2013. Sem essa maioria, impossível fazer reformas na Constituição.

Assim, o quadro do terceiro mandato vai parecendo uma hipótese cada vez mais distante.

3. A mídia tem dado vexame.

Nenhum jornal ou emissora de TV cobriu a marcha com um mínimo de objetividade. Jornais sérios, como o “La Nación”, deram títulos épicos para o triunfo do protesto. Os meios opositores ao governo, em geral, trouxeram furiosos artigos de opinião enaltecendo as bandeiras da marcha. Nenhum, porém, teve a boa ideia de mandar repórteres com o único objetivo de descrever o que acontecia nas ruas ou, simplesmente, para contar quanta gente havia.

Na noite do evento e no dia seguinte, jornalistas estrangeiros sofriam para conseguir uma cifra que fosse pelo menos aproximada, de alguma fonte de notícias ou de alguma autoridade. As da cidade, que estão nas mãos da oposição, exageravam a cifra para cima. Os alinhados ao governo, como a Agência Télam, diziam que não havia mais de 50 mil pessoas no Obelisco –a estimativa final da polícia metropolitana foi de 500 mil pessoas.

Há técnicas hoje em dia para medir a quantidade de pessoas em eventos públicos usadas amplamente por veículos pelo mundo. Nem “Clarín”, nem “La Nación” nem ninguém se preocupou em dar uma informação precisa sobre isso.

Crédito: Uki Goñi

4. As redes sociais terão cada vez mais influência

Seguindo uma tendência internacional, a convocação do 8N foi feita basicamente pelas redes sociais. Ao longo das últimas semanas, blogs, Facebook e Twitter espalharam a notícia e organizaram as rotas do protesto. O surgimento e a proliferação de blogs anti e pró kirchnerismo animam a política local e provocam o comodismo e o partidarismo dos meios tradicionais, comprometidos em sua batalha particular contra o governo.

5. O 7D será uma data-chave

Passado o 8N, a atenção geral agora será voltada para o 7D. Nesse dia, vence a cautelar conseguida pelo “Clarín” para que ficassem suspensas as cláusulas que o obrigam a desinvestir, ou seja, a abrir mão de meios e licenças que superem o novo limite.

O governo vê na ocasião uma oportunidade de recuperar a mística dos tempos dourados do kirchnerismo, o início da gestão Néstor, com o país crescendo a 9% ao ano. Muita coisa deu errado para Cristina em 2012: surgiram denúncias contra seu vice, Amado Boudou, a inflação subiu muito, a economia estagnou-se, um terrível acidente de trem minou sua popularidade entre classes mais baixas. Tudo isso junto colaborou para que seu índice de aprovação caísse para baixo dos 40% apenas um ano depois de vencer uma eleição por 54% dos votos.

Que o 7D seja um sucesso é uma necessidade para que o governo volte a reconstruir sua imagem. Portanto, a agressividade com relação aos meios independentes, em especial ao “Clarín”, deve aumentar nas próximas semanas.

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